The Honourable Company of Gloucestershire held its first Business Lecture on 18 January, which was “A Macro-Outlook on 2023”, and was given by the award-winning financial commentator Janet Mui who is the Royal Bank of Canada Brewin Dolphin, Head of Market Analysis. The venue was and supported by the University of Gloucestershire and the event was sponsored by Brewin Dolphin.
Janet summarised 2022 turbulent markets performance, with the end of cheap money against the background of a cost-of-living crisis. She reviewed the rise in inflation and its likelihood to fall in 2023/24 as a result of falling gas and oil prices. However, the need to increase bank interest rates will continue but at a slower rate and will peak at 4.5% with some slight fall off in the UK, but more so in the USA, she used a number of indicators to demonstrate this such as the housing market and unemployment rates. Janet gave her opinion on China’s capacity for growth and its ability to possibly positively affect world markets. She then reviewed equities, bonds, diverse investment portfolios and longer-term investment opportunities.
In summary Janet’s macro view was a mild recession, inflation to ease, interest rates to peak and pause, markets remain too optimistic on Fed rate cuts, with China as a bit of a wild card for growth and inflation. This led to an investment view of, maintain a defensive position, bonds to be a possible opportunity as decent yields are available, upgraded UK gilts as recession limits upside on yields, not yet bullish on equities, and the view on the US dollar is now more balanced.
Janet’s presentation can be found here; and a video of the lecture will appear on the Company’s YouTube Channel.
